ACGL Stock and Options Trade Setup — Arch Capital Group
Nasdaq · S&P 500 · Insurance & Reinsurance · Low-moderate liquidity options · Large cap · ~$33B
Arch Capital is a disciplined underwriter that thrives in hard insurance markets — and the P&C and reinsurance markets remain firmly hard following several years of elevated catastrophe losses that have forced pricing resets across virtually every line. Arch has a track record of growing book value per share at ~15% annually through full insurance cycles, which is exceptional for the sector. The mortgage insurance segment benefits from structurally elevated home prices and low delinquency rates. Bermuda domicile provides tax efficiency. Institutional ownership is deep — Arch is a staple of every quality-focused insurance fund. The options market is quiet with very low implied volatility, making it a high-probability premium collection setup or a low-cost long-dated directional play ahead of earnings catalysts. Under-followed by retail, which keeps IVR consistently suppressed.
Score History & Signal Changelog
Preview dataThis page is a living document — updated every 72 hours from the last scan. Each data point below represents one complete algorithmic snapshot.
Signal Breakdown
Today's Trade Card
Options Profile
Risks & Fundamentals
Every setup carries risk. Here's what could move ACGL against you, plus the key stats that frame any position.
- 1.Catastrophe year severity risk — a major Atlantic hurricane season could pressure reinsurance results
- 2.Mortgage insurance segment exposed to housing market deterioration or rising delinquencies
- 3.Hard market softening as new reinsurance capital enters — pricing cycle is cyclical not permanent
ACGL Options Setup — Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACGL a good options trade today?+
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) currently has an Amora Edge Score of 64/100, ranking it top 38% of today's scan. This composite score is built from four sub-signals — EMA cross, RSI zone, relative strength vs SPY, and volume surge — each scored 0–25. The current read is a bullish setup, so the algorithm is positioned bullish (calls / call debit spreads). A score above 65 typically warrants a trade card with stop and target; below that, the setup is on the watchlist but not actionable.
What is ACGL's win rate on Stoptions.ai setups?+
ACGL's historical win rate on closed Stoptions setups is 60%. Win rate is calculated as the percentage of past ACGL trade cards that hit their target price before stopping out. Win rate is most meaningful once a ticker has 10+ closed trades — individual ticker rates can be noisy at smaller samples. Our portfolio-wide win rate across all closed trades is the more stable benchmark.
What strike and expiry does Stoptions.ai suggest for ACGL?+
The strike and expiry are shown on the trade card at the top of this page when the setup is active. Stoptions.ai algorithmically selects strikes targeting delta 0.35–0.45 and expirations 30–45 days out, adjusted for current implied volatility rank (IVR). When IVR is high, the system favors call debit spreads to limit vega risk; when IVR is low, single-leg long calls are preferred. The card includes the contract symbol, mid-price entry, stop, and target.
How often is the ACGL setup updated?+
Every 72 hours we refresh ACGL's Amora Edge Score and trade card. The underlying scan runs daily at 9:00 AM ET (pre-market) and 9:30 AM ET (post-open), so any new signal change is reflected within one trading session. If ACGL drops below the entry threshold or the regime shifts (e.g., SPY enters a confirmed bear), the trade card is replaced with a "no setup" notice automatically.
What does the Amora Edge Score measure for ACGL?+
The Amora Edge Score is a 0–100 composite of four technical sub-signals applied to ACGL: (1) EMA cross — is the 20-day above the 50-day with both trending up? (2) RSI zone — is momentum in the 50–70 sweet spot, or extended/weak? (3) Relative strength vs SPY — is ACGL outperforming the market over 20 sessions? (4) Volume surge — is participation above the 20-day average? Each sub-signal contributes 0–25 points. ACGL currently scores 64.
How does ACGL compare to other Insurance & Reinsurance setups?+
ACGL's sector rank and percentile against other Insurance & Reinsurance tickers we track is shown on the /tickers index — sortable by Amora Edge Score, win rate, or sector. For direct comparison, see the "Related Insurance & Reinsurance Options Setups" panel above. When multiple tickers in the same sector are scoring 80+, the algorithm flags the cluster as a sector rotation signal and may upweight position sizing.
Educational content only — not personalized investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.
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