ADM Stock and Options Trade Setup — Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.
S&P 500 · Agriculture & Food Processing · Moderate-liquidity options · Large cap · ~$23B
ADM sits at the centre of the global food supply chain — its origination, transportation, and processing network is extraordinarily difficult to replicate and gives it pricing power across commodity cycles. The company benefits from structurally elevated agricultural commodity demand driven by population growth, expanding middle-class protein consumption, and biofuel mandates. After an accounting review and CFO departure in late 2023 weighed heavily on the stock, ADM has emerged with cleaned-up financials, a refreshed management team, and a significantly de-rated valuation. At current multiples, the stock prices in very little recovery in specialty ingredients and biofuels margins. A normalisation of crop margins and any resolution of the accounting overhang creates a strong mean-reversion setup with defensive sector characteristics.
Score History & Signal Changelog
Preview dataThis page is a living document — updated every 72 hours from the last scan. Each data point below represents one complete algorithmic snapshot.
Signal Breakdown
Today's Trade Card
Options Profile
Risks & Fundamentals
Every setup carries risk. Here's what could move ADM against you, plus the key stats that frame any position.
- 1.Commodity margin pressure if above-average global harvests compress processing spreads
- 2.Residual reputational and legal risk from 2023-2024 accounting restatement and CFO departure
- 3.Biofuel mandate uncertainty if EPA reduces renewable volume obligations
ADM Options Setup — Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADM a good options trade today?+
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) currently has an Amora Edge Score of 58/100, ranking it top 38% of today's scan. This composite score is built from four sub-signals — EMA cross, RSI zone, relative strength vs SPY, and volume surge — each scored 0–25. The current read is a cautious setup, so the algorithm is positioned cautious (smaller size or wait for confirmation). A score above 65 typically warrants a trade card with stop and target; below that, the setup is on the watchlist but not actionable.
What is ADM's win rate on Stoptions.ai setups?+
ADM's historical win rate on closed Stoptions setups is 57%. Win rate is calculated as the percentage of past ADM trade cards that hit their target price before stopping out. Win rate is most meaningful once a ticker has 10+ closed trades — individual ticker rates can be noisy at smaller samples. Our portfolio-wide win rate across all closed trades is the more stable benchmark.
What strike and expiry does Stoptions.ai suggest for ADM?+
The strike and expiry are shown on the trade card at the top of this page when the setup is active. Stoptions.ai algorithmically selects strikes targeting delta 0.35–0.45 and expirations 30–45 days out, adjusted for current implied volatility rank (IVR). When IVR is high, the system favors call debit spreads to limit vega risk; when IVR is low, single-leg long calls are preferred. The card includes the contract symbol, mid-price entry, stop, and target.
How often is the ADM setup updated?+
Every 72 hours we refresh ADM's Amora Edge Score and trade card. The underlying scan runs daily at 9:00 AM ET (pre-market) and 9:30 AM ET (post-open), so any new signal change is reflected within one trading session. If ADM drops below the entry threshold or the regime shifts (e.g., SPY enters a confirmed bear), the trade card is replaced with a "no setup" notice automatically.
What does the Amora Edge Score measure for ADM?+
The Amora Edge Score is a 0–100 composite of four technical sub-signals applied to ADM: (1) EMA cross — is the 20-day above the 50-day with both trending up? (2) RSI zone — is momentum in the 50–70 sweet spot, or extended/weak? (3) Relative strength vs SPY — is ADM outperforming the market over 20 sessions? (4) Volume surge — is participation above the 20-day average? Each sub-signal contributes 0–25 points. ADM currently scores 58.
How does ADM compare to other Agriculture & Food Processing setups?+
ADM's sector rank and percentile against other Agriculture & Food Processing tickers we track is shown on the /tickers index — sortable by Amora Edge Score, win rate, or sector. For direct comparison, see the "Related Agriculture & Food Processing Options Setups" panel above. When multiple tickers in the same sector are scoring 80+, the algorithm flags the cluster as a sector rotation signal and may upweight position sizing.
Educational content only — not personalized investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.
Get a Friday recap including setups like ADM.
Every Friday at 4:30 PM ET — trade of the week, signals in motion, sector spotlight, methodology read. 4-minute read. Free.
No spam. One email Friday afternoon. Unsubscribe in one click.