MGY Stock and Options Trade Setup — Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
NYSE · Eagle Ford E&P — South Texas · Low-moderate options liquidity · Mid cap · ~$5.2B
Magnolia is one of the highest-return-on-capital E&P companies in the U.S. small-mid cap space. Its Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk operations have among the lowest finding and development costs in North American onshore — wells pay out in under 18 months at $65/bbl oil. Management's return-of-capital program is notably disciplined: the company commits to returning 50%+ of free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks each year, with the balance deployed into low-cost bolt-on acquisitions. No mega-deals, no levered acquisitions, no overreaching — just compounding within the core competency area. The Austin Chalk horizon is an emerging growth vector with excellent well economics that extends Magnolia's inventory depth well beyond current drilling programs. As a smaller, less-owned name, it trades at a discount to peers despite superior capital discipline.
Score History & Signal Changelog
Preview dataThis page is a living document — updated every 72 hours from the last scan. Each data point below represents one complete algorithmic snapshot.
Signal Breakdown
Today's Trade Card
Options Profile
Risks & Fundamentals
Every setup carries risk. Here's what could move MGY against you, plus the key stats that frame any position.
- 1.Crude oil price sensitivity — lower oil prices directly reduce free cash flow
- 2.Acreage concentration in South Texas limits portfolio diversification
- 3.Oil price hedging provides buffer but any unhedged exposure amplifies downside in bear market
MGY Options Setup — Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGY a good options trade today?+
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) currently has an Amora Edge Score of 70/100, ranking it top 40%. This composite score is built from four sub-signals — EMA cross, RSI zone, relative strength vs SPY, and volume surge — each scored 0–25. The current read is a bullish setup, so the algorithm is positioned bullish (calls / call debit spreads). A score above 65 typically warrants a trade card with stop and target; below that, the setup is on the watchlist but not actionable.
What is MGY's win rate on Stoptions.ai setups?+
MGY's historical win rate on closed Stoptions setups is 65%. Win rate is calculated as the percentage of past MGY trade cards that hit their target price before stopping out. Win rate is most meaningful once a ticker has 10+ closed trades — individual ticker rates can be noisy at smaller samples. Our portfolio-wide win rate across all closed trades is the more stable benchmark.
What strike and expiry does Stoptions.ai suggest for MGY?+
The strike and expiry are shown on the trade card at the top of this page when the setup is active. Stoptions.ai algorithmically selects strikes targeting delta 0.35–0.45 and expirations 30–45 days out, adjusted for current implied volatility rank (IVR). When IVR is high, the system favors call debit spreads to limit vega risk; when IVR is low, single-leg long calls are preferred. The card includes the contract symbol, mid-price entry, stop, and target.
How often is the MGY setup updated?+
Every 72 hours we refresh MGY's Amora Edge Score and trade card. The underlying scan runs daily at 9:00 AM ET (pre-market) and 9:30 AM ET (post-open), so any new signal change is reflected within one trading session. If MGY drops below the entry threshold or the regime shifts (e.g., SPY enters a confirmed bear), the trade card is replaced with a "no setup" notice automatically.
What does the Amora Edge Score measure for MGY?+
The Amora Edge Score is a 0–100 composite of four technical sub-signals applied to MGY: (1) EMA cross — is the 20-day above the 50-day with both trending up? (2) RSI zone — is momentum in the 50–70 sweet spot, or extended/weak? (3) Relative strength vs SPY — is MGY outperforming the market over 20 sessions? (4) Volume surge — is participation above the 20-day average? Each sub-signal contributes 0–25 points. MGY currently scores 70.
How does MGY compare to other Eagle Ford E&P — South Texas setups?+
MGY's sector rank and percentile against other Eagle Ford E&P — South Texas tickers we track is shown on the /tickers index — sortable by Amora Edge Score, win rate, or sector. For direct comparison, see the "Related Eagle Ford E&P — South Texas Options Setups" panel above. When multiple tickers in the same sector are scoring 80+, the algorithm flags the cluster as a sector rotation signal and may upweight position sizing.
Educational content only — not personalized investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.
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