MPCStock and Options Trade Setup — Marathon Petroleum Corporation
NYSE · Petroleum Refining & Fuel Distribution · High-liquidity options · Large cap · ~$55B
Marathon Petroleum is the best-positioned large-cap refiner in the U.S. — its geographic footprint spans the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and West Coast, giving it feedstock optionality that pure-play regional refiners lack. Crack spreads (refining margins) have normalized from post-COVID peaks but remain structurally supported by tight U.S. refining capacity — no significant new refineries have been built in 30+ years, and several capacity shutdowns since 2020 have permanently reduced supply. The MPLX stake provides a stable, growing fee-based cash flow stream worth ~$2B annually that underwrites MPC's own distribution and buyback capacity. MPC has been extraordinarily aggressive on buybacks — reducing share count by over 40% in five years — which drives EPS growth that is largely independent of the crack spread cycle. At current strip pricing, the stock trades at a mid-single-digit FCF multiple.
Score History & Signal Changelog
● Live dataThis page is updated every 72 hours with the latest Scan results. Each data point below represents one complete algorithmic snapshot in time.
Signal Breakdown
Today's Trade Card
Options Profile
Risks & Fundamentals
Every setup carries risk. Here's what could move MPC against you, plus the key stats that frame any position.
- 1.Crack spread compression — if global refining capacity utilization falls or crude-product differentials narrow, margins compress rapidly
- 2.EV transition reduces long-term gasoline demand; structural demand headwinds are 5–10 years out but loom over valuation
- 3.Crude oil price volatility creates short-term inventory gains/losses that obscure underlying earnings quality
MPC Options Setup — Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPC a good options trade today?+
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) currently has an Amora Edge Score of 66/100, ranking it top 40%. This composite score is built from four sub-signals — EMA cross, RSI zone, relative strength vs SPY, and volume surge — each scored 0–25. The current read is a watchlist setup, so the algorithm is positioned bullish (calls / call debit spreads). A score above 65 typically warrants a trade card with stop and target; below that, the setup is on the watchlist but not actionable.
What is MPC's win rate on Stoptions.ai setups?+
MPC's historical win rate on closed Stoptions setups is 60%. Win rate is calculated as the percentage of past MPC trade cards that hit their target price before stopping out. Win rate is most meaningful once a ticker has 10+ closed trades — individual ticker rates can be noisy at smaller samples. Our portfolio-wide win rate across all closed trades is the more stable benchmark.
What strike and expiry does Stoptions.ai suggest for MPC?+
The strike and expiry are shown on the trade card at the top of this page when the setup is active. Stoptions.ai algorithmically selects strikes targeting delta 0.35–0.45 and expirations 30–45 days out, adjusted for current implied volatility rank (IVR). When IVR is high, the system favors call debit spreads to limit vega risk; when IVR is low, single-leg long calls are preferred. The card includes the contract symbol, mid-price entry, stop, and target.
How often is the MPC setup updated?+
Every 72 hours we refresh MPC's Amora Edge Score and trade card. The underlying scan runs daily at 9:00 AM ET (pre-market) and 9:30 AM ET (post-open), so any new signal change is reflected within one trading session. If MPC drops below the entry threshold or the regime shifts (e.g., SPY enters a confirmed bear), the trade card is replaced with a "no setup" notice automatically.
What does the Amora Edge Score measure for MPC?+
The Amora Edge Score is a 0–100 composite of four technical sub-signals applied to MPC: (1) EMA cross — is the 20-day above the 50-day with both trending up? (2) RSI zone — is momentum in the 50–70 sweet spot, or extended/weak? (3) Relative strength vs SPY — is MPC outperforming the market over 20 sessions? (4) Volume surge — is participation above the 20-day average? Each sub-signal contributes 0–25 points. MPC currently scores 66.
How does MPC compare to other Petroleum Refining & Fuel Distribution setups?+
MPC's sector rank and percentile against other Petroleum Refining & Fuel Distribution tickers we track is shown on the /tickers index — sortable by Amora Edge Score, win rate, or sector. For direct comparison, see the "Related Petroleum Refining & Fuel Distribution Options Setups" panel above. When multiple tickers in the same sector are scoring 80+, the algorithm flags the cluster as a sector rotation signal and may upweight position sizing.
Educational content only — not personalized investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.
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