ULTA Stock and Options Trade Setup — Ulta Beauty
Nasdaq · Consumer Discretionary · Good options liquidity; moderate spreads · Large cap · ~$14B
ULTA operates in the resilient beauty category where consumer spending has historically proven more recession-resistant than other discretionary segments. The company's all-inclusive format — spanning drug-store to prestige price points — captures broad consumer demographics within a single shopping trip. The in-store salon services create a differentiated experience that drives loyalty and repeat visits. The Ulta loyalty program with tens of millions of active members generates proprietary consumer data and pricing power. International partnerships and digital beauty content expansion represent incremental growth vectors beyond the mature domestic store base.
Score History & Signal Changelog
Preview dataThis page is a living document — updated every 72 hours from the last scan. Each data point below represents one complete algorithmic snapshot.
Signal Breakdown
Today's Trade Card
Options Profile
Risks & Fundamentals
Every setup carries risk. Here's what could move ULTA against you, plus the key stats that frame any position.
- 1.Competition from Sephora inside Target accelerating market share pressure
- 2.Beauty category demand normalization after pandemic-driven spike
- 3.Digital-first beauty brands bypassing specialty retail channels
ULTA Options Setup — Frequently Asked Questions
Is ULTA a good options trade today?+
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) currently has an Amora Edge Score of 73/100, ranking it top 25%. This composite score is built from four sub-signals — EMA cross, RSI zone, relative strength vs SPY, and volume surge — each scored 0–25. The current read is a bullish setup, so the algorithm is positioned bullish (calls / call debit spreads). A score above 65 typically warrants a trade card with stop and target; below that, the setup is on the watchlist but not actionable.
What is ULTA's win rate on Stoptions.ai setups?+
ULTA's historical win rate on closed Stoptions setups is 65%. Win rate is calculated as the percentage of past ULTA trade cards that hit their target price before stopping out. Win rate is most meaningful once a ticker has 10+ closed trades — individual ticker rates can be noisy at smaller samples. Our portfolio-wide win rate across all closed trades is the more stable benchmark.
What strike and expiry does Stoptions.ai suggest for ULTA?+
The strike and expiry are shown on the trade card at the top of this page when the setup is active. Stoptions.ai algorithmically selects strikes targeting delta 0.35–0.45 and expirations 30–45 days out, adjusted for current implied volatility rank (IVR). When IVR is high, the system favors call debit spreads to limit vega risk; when IVR is low, single-leg long calls are preferred. The card includes the contract symbol, mid-price entry, stop, and target.
How often is the ULTA setup updated?+
Every 72 hours we refresh ULTA's Amora Edge Score and trade card. The underlying scan runs daily at 9:00 AM ET (pre-market) and 9:30 AM ET (post-open), so any new signal change is reflected within one trading session. If ULTA drops below the entry threshold or the regime shifts (e.g., SPY enters a confirmed bear), the trade card is replaced with a "no setup" notice automatically.
What does the Amora Edge Score measure for ULTA?+
The Amora Edge Score is a 0–100 composite of four technical sub-signals applied to ULTA: (1) EMA cross — is the 20-day above the 50-day with both trending up? (2) RSI zone — is momentum in the 50–70 sweet spot, or extended/weak? (3) Relative strength vs SPY — is ULTA outperforming the market over 20 sessions? (4) Volume surge — is participation above the 20-day average? Each sub-signal contributes 0–25 points. ULTA currently scores 73.
How does ULTA compare to other Consumer Discretionary setups?+
ULTA's sector rank and percentile against other Consumer Discretionary tickers we track is shown on the /tickers index — sortable by Amora Edge Score, win rate, or sector. For direct comparison, see the "Related Consumer Discretionary Options Setups" panel above. When multiple tickers in the same sector are scoring 80+, the algorithm flags the cluster as a sector rotation signal and may upweight position sizing.
Educational content only — not personalized investment advice. Options carry substantial risk.
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